Good morning. Here is the latest news from one or two of your many possible plausible near futures.
Prediction markets have been around in some form ever since outcomes of interest have existed to be speculated on, but they have been mostly the domain of niche communities of enthusiasts, academics, and professionals.
In the past few years, however, prediction markets have been undergoing a transformation that has brought them into the mainstream consciousness and culture. This transformation has been driven by a combination of technological advancements, regulatory changes, a global marketplace, and shifts in consumer behavior and preferences.
Today’s issue wanders into this transformation and its implications.
Speculative prototyping of these possible near futures of the practices of prediction helps us notice the social “shape” of these trends and signals and the way they shape the worlds we inhabit. This kind of prototyping reveals“implications” that plain research cannot.
Strategy has always been speculation with a Brooks Bros. suit and tie on.
“Applied speculation” is another way to say that, and it’s a practice that Near Future Laboratory has been honing for over two decades. Speculative prototyping is a way to make the implications of research and signals more tangible, experiential, and visceral. It’s a way to make the future feel more real and present, and to help us see the possibilities and consequences of our actions in a more vivid and immediate way.